Ranking, form, head-to-head, map pool. Those four decide most CS2 series, and they are what we ran Luminosity vs Spirit through.
✅ Reliably steers the veto to Nuke (67% pick rate)
❌ Only 17% winrate on Inferno over 6 maps — exploitable in the veto
❌ Practically never plays Cache (100% banned), reducing veto flexibility
❌ Form slump: 4 losses in last 4 points to recent inconsistency
✅ Ancient strength: 100% winrate over 5 maps is a strong tactical pick
✅ Reliably steers the veto to Dust2 (71% pick rate)
✅ Strong recent form: 14 wins in last 17 (77%) shows momentum
❌ Practically never plays Inferno (100% banned), reducing veto flexibility
Win, pick and ban rates over the last three months. This is where a series is often decided before it starts — a team can steer the veto onto a map the opponent rarely plays.
Ancient — Luminosity's pick
Dust2 — Spirit's pick
Nuke — the decider
All Luminosity predictions and results
All Spirit predictions and results
Statistical model estimates, published for entertainment. Match data: HLTV.org.