On paper this is lopsided: FlyQuest sit 28 places above THUNDER dOWNUNDER in the world ranking. Those gaps close more often than people expect, so here is what the numbers say once form, head-to-head and the map pool get a vote.
FlyQuest come in ranked #93 in the world, THUNDER dOWNUNDER #121.
✅ Dust2 strength: 86% winrate over 7 maps is a strong tactical pick
✅ Reliably steers the veto to Anubis (77% pick rate)
✅ Strong recent form: 13 wins in last 16 (78%) shows momentum
❌ Heavy Mirage ban usage (79% bans) limits their map bargaining
✅ Dust2 strength: 80% winrate over 5 maps is a strong tactical pick
✅ Strong recent form: 8 wins in last 10 (89%) shows momentum
❌ Practically never plays Mirage (91% banned), reducing veto flexibility
❌ Weak head-to-head (0% versus FlyQuest) undermines matchup confidence
FlyQuest and THUNDER dOWNUNDER have met 4 times in the period we track — FlyQuest 4, THUNDER dOWNUNDER 0.
Win, pick and ban rates over the last three months. This is where a series is often decided before it starts — a team can steer the veto onto a map the opponent rarely plays.
FlyQuest
jks1.36
INS1.14
Vexite1.38
nettik1.14
aliStair1.08
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
viridian1.07
TjP1.09
dexter1.00
Gratisfaction1.07
Liazz1.40
All FlyQuest predictions and results
All THUNDER dOWNUNDER predictions and results
Statistical model estimates, published for entertainment. Match data: HLTV.org.