Match preview · ESL Pro League Season 24

Falcons vs Natus Vincere — match prediction & analysis

6 October at 19:00 Oslo · by the CS Edge model

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Falcons and Natus Vincere have shared a server 11 times in the period we track, which makes this one of the rarer matchups where the head-to-head actually means something. We weighed it against form, ranking and the map pool.

Falcons come in ranked #5 in the world, Natus Vincere #10.

Falcons

✅ Dust2 strength: 70% winrate over 10 maps is a strong tactical pick

✅ Reliably steers the veto to Dust2 (55% pick rate)

✅ Strong recent form: 8 wins in last 13 (62%) shows momentum

❌ Only 20% winrate on Ancient over 5 maps — exploitable in the veto

❌ Practically never plays Cache (100% banned), reducing veto flexibility

Natus Vincere

✅ Reliably steers the veto to Ancient (50% pick rate)

❌ Only 33% winrate on Mirage over 6 maps — exploitable in the veto

❌ Heavy Dust2 ban usage (71% bans) limits their map bargaining

❌ Weak head-to-head (36% versus Falcons) undermines matchup confidence

Recent form

Head to head

Falcons and Natus Vincere have met 11 times in the period we track — Falcons 7, Natus Vincere 4.

The map pool

Win, pick and ban rates over the last three months. This is where a series is often decided before it starts — a team can steer the veto onto a map the opponent rarely plays.

The maps

The veto isn't done yet — map picks land right before kickoff, and this page updates automatically.

Our picks

🎯 Series — Falcons to win 2-0

Line-ups

Player rating: ★ top · high · average · low

Falcons

karrigan0.80

NiKo1.09

★ m0NESY1.39

TeSeS1.06

kyousuke1.12

Natus Vincere

iM1.01

makazze1.07

b1t1.06

★ w0nderful1.13

Aleksib0.91

More on these teams

All Falcons predictions and results
All Natus Vincere predictions and results

Statistical model estimates, published for entertainment. Match data: HLTV.org.