Match preview · ESL Pro League Season 24

Aurora vs Spirit — match prediction & analysis

11 October at 13:30 Oslo · by the CS Edge model

Aurora and Spirit have shared a server 14 times in the period we track, which makes this one of the rarer matchups where the head-to-head actually means something. We weighed it against form, ranking and the map pool.

Aurora come in ranked #9 in the world, Spirit #1.

Our call: Spirit to win — 76% (a medium-risk pick)

Aurora

✅ Nuke strength: 88% winrate over 8 maps is a strong tactical pick

✅ Reliably steers the veto to Ancient (100% pick rate)

✅ Strong recent form: 15 wins in last 23 (65%) shows momentum

❌ Heavy Ancient ban usage (83% bans) limits their map bargaining

❌ Weak head-to-head (29% versus Spirit) undermines matchup confidence

Spirit

✅ Ancient strength: 90% winrate over 10 maps is a strong tactical pick

✅ Reliably steers the veto to Dust2 (71% pick rate)

✅ Strong recent form: 19 wins in last 24 (74%) shows momentum

❌ Practically never plays Inferno (100% banned), reducing veto flexibility

Recent form

AuroraLWWWL3 of 5 won

SpiritLWWLL2 of 5 won

Head to head

Aurora and Spirit have met 14 times in the period we track — Aurora 4, Spirit 10.

12 Jun 2026IEM Cologne Major 2026 · Nuke — Spirit5 - 13

12 Jun 2026IEM Cologne Major 2026 · Anubis — Spirit4 - 13

12 Jun 2026IEM Cologne Major 2026 · Dust2 — Aurora13 - 9

13 Mar 2025ESL Pro League Season 21 · Mirage — Spirit7 - 13

13 Mar 2025ESL Pro League Season 21 · Anubis — Eternal Fire13 - 10

The map pool

Win, pick and ban rates over the last three months. This is where a series is often decided before it starts — a team can steer the veto onto a map the opponent rarely plays.

AuroraSpirit

43%7 maps Cache 56%9 maps

50%8 maps Dust2 69%16 maps

60%15 maps Mirage 55%11 maps

57%7 maps Inferno -0 maps

88%8 maps Nuke 57%7 maps

-1 maps Ancient 90%10 maps

73%11 maps Anubis 88%8 maps

The maps

The veto isn't done yet — map picks land right before kickoff, and this page updates automatically.

Our picks

🎯 Series — Spirit to win 2-0

Line-ups

Player rating: ★ top · high · average · low

Aurora

woxic1.05

XANTARES1.04

Wicadia1.11

★

Jimpphat1.13

kyxsan0.98

Spirit

magixx0.97

tN1R1.05

sh1ro1.13

★

donk1.38

zont1x1.01

More on these teams

All Aurora predictions and results
All Spirit predictions and results

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Statistical model estimates, published for entertainment. Match data: HLTV.org.