Match preview · Thunderpick World Championship 2026

Aurora vs Falcons — match prediction & analysis

18 October at 13:30 Oslo · by the CS Edge model

Aurora and Falcons have shared a server 7 times in the period we track, which makes this one of the rarer matchups where the head-to-head actually means something. We weighed it against form, ranking and the map pool.

Aurora come in ranked #6 in the world, Falcons #5.

Our call publishes before kickoff. Free on csedge.io — premium members get every call up front.

Aurora

✅ Nuke strength: 78% winrate over 9 maps is a strong tactical pick

✅ Reliably steers the veto to Ancient (100% pick rate)

✅ Strong recent form: 18 wins in last 28 (63%) shows momentum

❌ Heavy Ancient ban usage (86% bans) limits their map bargaining

Falcons

✅ Inferno strength: 80% winrate over 5 maps is a strong tactical pick

✅ Reliably steers the veto to Dust2 (53% pick rate)

✅ Strong recent form: 11 wins in last 18 (62%) shows momentum

❌ Only 33% winrate on Ancient over 6 maps — exploitable in the veto

❌ Practically never plays Cache (100% banned), reducing veto flexibility

❌ Weak head-to-head (43% versus Aurora) undermines matchup confidence

Recent form

AuroraLWWLW3 of 5 won

FalconsLWWLW3 of 5 won

Head to head

Aurora and Falcons have met 7 times in the period we track — Aurora 4, Falcons 3.

4 Oct 2026ESL Pro League Season 24 · Dust2 — Falcons10 - 13

4 Oct 2026ESL Pro League Season 24 · Mirage — Falcons4 - 13

1 Feb 2026IEM Kraków 2026 · Inferno — Aurora13 - 8

1 Feb 2026IEM Kraków 2026 · Mirage — Falcons10 - 13

1 Feb 2026IEM Kraków 2026 · Anubis — Aurora13 - 7

The map pool

Win, pick and ban rates over the last three months. This is where a series is often decided before it starts — a team can steer the veto onto a map the opponent rarely plays.

AuroraFalcons

56%9 maps Cache -0 maps

50%10 maps Dust2 69%13 maps

62%16 maps Mirage 44%9 maps

50%10 maps Inferno 80%5 maps

78%9 maps Nuke 75%4 maps

-1 maps Ancient 33%6 maps

75%12 maps Anubis 50%6 maps

The maps

The veto isn't done yet — map picks land right before kickoff, and this page updates automatically.

Our picks

Per-map picks publish automatically the moment the map veto is done.

Line-ups

Player rating: ★ top · high · average · low

Aurora

woxic1.04

XANTARES1.04

Wicadia1.12

★

Jimpphat1.13

kyxsan0.97

Falcons

karrigan0.81

NiKo1.09

★

m0NESY1.33

TeSeS1.07

kyousuke1.06

More on these teams

All Aurora predictions and results
All Falcons predictions and results

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Statistical model estimates, published for entertainment. Match data: HLTV.org.