On paper this is lopsided: Astralis sit 26 places above 100 Thieves in the world ranking. Those gaps close more often than people expect, so here is what the numbers say once form, head-to-head and the map pool get a vote.
100 Thieves come in ranked #37 in the world, Astralis #11.
✅ Dust2 strength: 78% winrate over 9 maps is a strong tactical pick
✅ Reliably steers the veto to Dust2 (50% pick rate)
✅ Strong recent form: 12 wins in last 20 (65%) shows momentum
❌ Heavy Cache ban usage (74% bans) limits their map bargaining
✅ Cache strength: 75% winrate over 8 maps is a strong tactical pick
✅ Reliably steers the veto to Ancient (87% pick rate)
✅ Strong recent form: 10 wins in last 17 (62%) shows momentum
❌ Only 0% winrate on Dust2 over 5 maps — exploitable in the veto
❌ Heavy Anubis ban usage (74% bans) limits their map bargaining
Win, pick and ban rates over the last three months. This is where a series is often decided before it starts — a team can steer the veto onto a map the opponent rarely plays.
100 Thieves
device1.04
rain1.11
Gizmy1.02
poiii1.12
sirah1.04
phzy1.05
HooXi0.90
jabbi1.07
Staehr1.18
ryu1.09
All 100 Thieves predictions and results
All Astralis predictions and results
Statistical model estimates, published for entertainment. Match data: HLTV.org.